DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks on with a Thursday Night Football clash between two 0-3 teams who’re desperate to finally get their season going and pick up their first W.

The Jets have had a pretty disastrous start to the year being beaten easily by all 3 teams they’ve faced through 3 weeks and this includes a San Francisco 49er side who are almost unrecognisable due to the amount and severity of injuries they’ve suffered on both sides of the ball. Sam Darnold and the offense have really struggled to start the season ranking bottom of the NFL in points scored and 31st in pass yards per game and Darnold was awful last week against the Colts posting 3 INT’s and a pass completion percentage below 60 whilst the run game has been non-existent through three weeks ranking 28th in Football. This is a truly horrible offense. On Defense its better but not much, they’re league average against the pass and 24th against the run but that has to be prefaced with the fact they played the Niners and that hot rush attack, they’re a better run stuffing unit than they’re ranked at the moment and I expect to see that tonight against a Broncos side who’ve also struggled to run the ball. A big concern for the Jets is the ‘QUESTIONABLE’ designation given to Offensive Tackle Mekhi Becton and Wide Receiver Jamison Crowder, If Becton misses the game I’m not sure who’ll protect Darnold and If Crowder misses the game I’m not sure who Darnold will pass the ball too.

The Broncos will have no sympathy for the Jets and their injury woes as the Broncos have some of the worst luck in the NFL with Drew Lock, Von Miller, Courtland Sutton, Jurrell Casey and Elijah Wilkinson all OUT amongst others and some important starters listed as ‘QUESTIONABLE’ for this one too. Their biggest issue right now is the loss of Lock which has left them in a mess at the QB position, Jeff Driskel came in to replace the injured Lock but was replaced by 3rd stringer Brett Rypien towards the end of their week 3 loss to the Buccaneers and has been named the starter for this game but he hardly set the world on fire in his cameo against the Buccs, not throwing a TD but leaving the contest with a INT to his name. In this situation you’d like to be able to lean on your run game, but Melvin Gordon has struggled to really get going this year and against this Jets Run D he’s in for a tough day and the loss of Courtland Sutton means the Broncos are relying on two rookie pass catchers as their main weapons in the receiving game with a 3rd stringer throwing them the ball and that’s not exactly a recipe for success. There is at least something for them to smile about on the defensive side of the ball and that’s their ability to stop the run, ranking top 10 in the league, but I doubt that is going to matter too much in this one as running the ball isn’t a particular strength of the Jets anyway I’m sure they weren’t banking on that to win them the game here. The pass defense isn’t great and ranks 29th In football through 3 weeks so I expect this game to come down to a battle of weak Jets Pass O vs weak Broncos Pass D.

This is a tough game to call, both are bad teams but the Broncos are bad because of injury whilst the Jets just suck. The Jets are favoured at home by 1.5 points (the home swing is usually 3 points) which means that Vegas have no idea what’s going to happen here and if I have to give you a winner I’d take the Jets in a FG fest but I don’t like it. I do however some of the value in this one, I’ve got 2 bets for you at the bottom of the page but there’s a one that’s just missed the cut but was my Next Best’s next best and that’s Jerry Jeudy over 52.5 yards @ 5/6 with SkyBet, he’s yet to go under that total in his professional career and typically lines up in the Slot here he’ll more than likely be up against Brian Poole who has let up a ton of yards this year. My Best Bet is the under 41 match points total as I just don’t see how either of these teams put up enough to cover it, it really would not surprise me if we saw a 12-9 Field Goal fest in this one. My Next Best is an obscure one and it’s Jets Safety Marcus Maye to have over 6.5 Tackles and Assists, Maye has yet to go under that figure through 3 weeks and with the absence of Jamal Adams has become the main man in that Jets Secondary, their use of him as a box safety and extra Linebacker make it more likely for him to rack up more tackles and their penchant for Blitzing him makes him a strong candidate to get to the QB, the Broncos have let up 4 Sacks to Defensive Backs in the last 2 weeks and Marcus Maye is 1 of only 5 DB’s with 2 or more Sacks on the year, finding a Sacks market is almost impossible but these stats point to an opportunity to makes plays in the backfield for Maye which means lining him up closer to the line of scrimmage which brings him into play not only to hunt the QB but also on running downs.

PREDICTION: JETS 19 – 10 BRONCOS

BEST BET: Under 40.5 Match Points @ 10/11 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.

NEXT BEST: Marcus Maye Over 6.5 Tackles & Assists @ 1/1 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.

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