So Tua is 3-0 as a starter and the Miami Dolphins are the new darlings of the NFL but is the rookie signal caller as good as his unbeaten start would suggest? Maybe not. I did full coaches film breakdown of Tua’s performance in Miami’s win over the Chargers last week and it made for some interesting viewing. Chan Gailey has his Dolphins Offense lining up in a lot of heavy sets to aid pass protection and then either hand it off or roll Tua out and throw it to his first read, there’s no going through progressions or breaking down coverage he’s just throwing to the guy the play is made for regardless of if he’s wide open or triple covered and I’ll be interested to see for just how long the Dolphins are able to run such a basic offense and I expect a Defensive play caller as good as Vic Fangio will have something special dialled up for the Rookie QB.
Drew Lock and the Broncos Offense have to be better, for the most part the Defense have done their job but Lock sometimes puts his side in impossible positions to be able to succeed and more than ever he’ll have to protect the ball against a Miami defense which has been part of the reason they’re able to play such a vanilla Offense and that’s because of the their playmaking ability and being able to take the ball away.
I’m expecting this to be a tougher test for Tua than we’ve seen so far with Vic Fangio calling the Defense and the altitude in Denver but it’s a question of if I trust Drew Lock to look after the ball because if he doesn’t the Dolphins are about to win 6 straight.
As for my best bet I’m going back to how protected Tua has been and in his three starts it yet to throw 30 times so with the U/O set at 31.5 I think we’ll dip our toe and take the Under.
PREDICTION: DOLPHINS 20 – 17 BRONCOS
BEST BET: Tua Tagovailoa Under 31.5 passing attempts – 5/6 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.