Big game with playoff implications in the AFC as the Colts head to Sin City to take on a Raiders side who’re lucky to be coming in off a win.
The Raiders were handed a win last week by Gregg Williams and the New York Jets as the Jets, up by 4 with five seconds on the clock inexplicably send a zero blitz (no safeties deep) and leave the fastest man on the field one-on-one with the Cornerback and allow Derek Carr to complete the easiest of passes to Henry Ruggs for the winning TD. Derek Carr has a good game against the Jets, throwing for over 280 yards and 3 TD’s but he was picked off once and things are about to get a lot harder as this Colts defense is one of the leagues best and last week became the first defense to keep Deshaun Watson scoreless through the air all season. Darren Waller is the Raiders biggest weapon on offense and the big TE has just had a career day, posting 200 yards and 2 TD’s against the Jets and it may be wise to feed him again today even though this Colts pass defense is good they have struggled defending TE’s.
Philip Rivers had another strong outing against the Texans last week, throwing for 285 yards and 2 TD’s and importantly for the Colts has been the recent connection with TY Hilton, the veteran Wide Receiver had been without a TD until a a couple of weeks ago and now has back to back games with a score after finding the Endzone against the Texans last week as well as posting his first 100+ yard game of the season.
This should be a great game with both sides needing wins with the Colts still challenging the Titans for their division and the Raiders needing to stay in touch of the other AFC playoff chasers but I’m going to take the Colts. I think they can really slow down the Raiders running game and force Derek Carr into beating them with his arm, whilst on the other side, Philip Rivers seems to playing well at the moment and the Raiders don’t possess a particularly fearsome defensive line.
As for my best bet I’m going with the man who had the big day last week, Darren Waller is coming off of a 17 target, 13 reception, 200 yard, multiple TD game and whilst his target share has been up and down all season, I can’t see the Raiders neglecting him in a game where their running game will be tested and against a defense who’re in the top 5 for yards allowed to the TE position. His U/O receptions number is set at 5.5 and Waller has 6 games this season with 6 or more receptions and we think he’ll make it 7 of 14 in this one.
PREDICTION: COLTS 27 – 24 RAIDERS
BEST BET: Darren Waller OVER 5.5 receptions – 8/11 with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.