AFC East matchup as the second place Dolphins welcome the third placed Patriots to Miami for a late season clash. The Division is gone as the Bills clinched it last night but the Dolphins still have post season aspirations whilst the Patriots are looking to spoil the party.

Miami played the Chiefs tough before ultimately falling to their high powered Offense, but the Dolphins defense did manage to pick off Patrick Mahomes three times and did better than most against the best passing Offense in football. Tua had his first 300+ yard passing game against the Chiefs, throwing for 2 TD’s and an INT as he and the Offense battled to keep up and it was a great effort when you consider both his #1 WR was injured and his #2 has been for weeks.

The Patriots played on Thursday night and were beaten up by the LA Rams who ran their rookie, Cam Akers up and down the Patriots for a smidge over 170 yards! The Patriots have been susceptible to the running game pretty much all season but the Dolphins aren’t really built to run the ball so it’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins change their Offensive game plan to take advantage of a Patriots weakness. The Offense is a mess, they can run the ball pretty well, in fact their a top 10 rushing Offense, but they cannot throw the ball, Cam Newton only has 5 passing TD’s this season and has thrown 10 INT’s! So up against this playmaking Dolphins defense who’re fresh off a 3 INT game against the NFL’s best passing Offense, I’d be worried about letting Cam throw the ball if I were Belichick.

The Dolphins are the much more talented side, there’s no doubt about that, but they’re not really built to beat this Patriots side, the Pats run the ball well whilst the Dolphins strength on defense is against the pass, and on the other side it’s the Patriots run defense which is their weakness but that’s not something the Dolphins are built to capitalise on. So, I’m taking the underdog Patriots to come into Miami and spoil the party.

For my best bet I’m going with Cam Newton and backing him to run the ball and hand it off a lot more often than he throws it against this defense and his U/O Passing Attempts number of 23.5 I feel is a little high as he hasn’t attempted even 20 in his last three games and in 4 of his last 5 and also attempted less than 20 in the first meeting between these two sides.


BEST BET: Cam Newton UNDER 23.5 Pass Attempts โ€“ 5/6 with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.  

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