2021 NFL DRAFT BETTING PREVIEW

The NFL Draft is less than 24hrs away and we’re getting excited here at FBA with the array of prop bets available to us. We’re going to go through some of our favourites here, so think of this as your 2021 NFL Draft betting cheat sheet.

The Draft starts @ 3

The first two selections in the 2021 NFL Draft are all but nailed on. Trevor Lawrence is going first overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars (1/100) and the NY Jets are taking Zach Wilson at number 2 (1/20). Now, we know the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the number 3 spot to take a QB, the question is, which one? The three candidates are:

PLAYERBEST PRICE / BOOKMAKER
MAC JONES 1/2 – SPORTNATION
TREY LANCE7/2 – BETFAIR
JUSTIN FIELDS 6/1 – BETVICTOR

Mac Jones was the hot name as soon as the Niners moved up to number 3 in the Draft and although that has wavered throughout the pre-draft process it appears that he will be the clear favourite once San Francisco is on the clock. It certainly wouldn’t be a popular pick though; Jones is limited physically and isn’t the playmaker you would usually see a team pay such a huge price to move up and trade. A lot of analysts have Mac Jones as the 4th or 5th best QB in this class and San Francisco fans have been in an uproar over the potential selection with some just flat out refusing to believe this is the pick.

Next up is Trey Lance. The strong-armed dual-threat QB is somewhat of a wildcard as he played at a lower level of competition than both Jones & Fields. He has all the physical tools you could want from a passer; the ball jumps out of his hand with real velocity, but he also can put touch on deep passes (similar to Russell Wilson) as well as being a physical runner and threat on the ground. The rumours the last few days seem to point to the Niners selecting either Mac Jones or Trey Lance, so the 7/2 price is enticing.

Finally, we have the wildcard. Justin Fields briefly became the betting favourite to be taken third overall after the 49ers attended his second Pro Day, but that chatter has died down and since then his price has lengthened hugely. He’s another compelling prospect with most “experts” varying wildly in their assessment of the former Ohio State passer. He would certainly be the selection that appeases the 49er faithful and is the type of playmaker a team would use this amount of draft capital on.

Conclusion – Ultimately, I think Mac Jones is going to be the selection here. The Niners sent the decision-makers to watch his pro day instead of watching Justin Fields perform at his Pro Day which was scheduled for the same time. Apparently, the decision has already been made that the pick will be either Mac Jones or Trey Lance and it’s rumoured that Jones is the preferred choice of HC Kyle Shanahan whilst Lance is favoured by GM John Lynch. So, whilst we like Mac Jones here we think Lance is worth a shot at the price.

BAMA BOYZ

Alabama has a rich history of producing top tier NFL talent, and in recent years they’ve produced an array of first-round NFL Draft picks. Almost unanimously 6 players from the Crimson Tide have been mocked to go inside the first 32 picks. QB Mac Jones, CB Patrick Surtain II and WR’s DeVonta Smith & Jaylen Waddle are pretty much dead certs to be gone before we get into the ’20s. RB Najee Harris has been widely reported to be the #1 RB in the class with the Pittsburgh Steelers apparently enamoured with the powerful ball carrier, he’s expected off the board no later than 24. Big DT Christian Barmore is the sixth player we see in almost every mock first round, it’s a shallow class and with many teams needing a versatile Defensive Tackle, he’s expected to be drafted between 17 and 32. As well as these 6 there are two more Alabama players with the potential to sneak into the first round. LT Alex Leatherwood has all the size you want from a potential blindside protector and if there’s a run-on Tackles, he could see his name called before round 1 is wrapped up. The other is Landon Dickerson, the Center has had some injury problems and that has seemingly dropped him out of the first round, but teams like Pittsburgh and Green Bay have glaring needs at the position so if their first and maybe second choice is already off the board when they come to pick, we could see Dickerson sneak into the first round also. I think exactly 6 Alabama players go in the first round this year with the potential to be as high as 8. Bama has had 15 players taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2017 so we know teams have no issue trusting that programme to deliver multiple top picks in each class.

Conclusion – Alabama to have 6 or more players drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. @ 8/13 with Ladbrokes.

LEVI ONWUZURIKE

Speaking of big DTs, they don’t come much bigger and better than Levi Onwuzurike in this 2021 class. The former Washington Huskie arguably provided the most consistent film of all the DTs in this class. He’s not a mainstay in mock drafts across the board but with the positional scarcity and value matched with team needs at the position, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he finds himself taken off the board in that same 17-32 range we expect to see Christian Barmore taken in.

Conclusion – Levi Onwuzurike to be taken in the first round @ 6/5 with SkyBet.

OWEH OR ROUSSEAU. WHO HAS THE EDGE?

The Draft process is an interesting thing. So many things change from the beginning of the College football season and Draft day, for instance, Gregory Rousseau was the consensus #1 EDGE prospect in the class before a game was played in the 2020 season, but Rousseau sat out the year due to COVID-19 and instead got himself ready for the Draft. Even throughout 2020 in which Rousseau didn’t play he was still a consensus top 3 EDGE prospect in this class and almost a lock to be taken in the first round, but then his Pro Day happened. A poor showing here seemed to confirm beliefs that he was being too highly regarded as a prospect because of his length and some 2019 stats that look a lot nicer on paper than they do when you put the tape on. An almost opposite situation has been happening with Penn State EDGE rusher Jayson Oweh. He started the season as a potential day 2 prospect, but the athletically gifted but raw prospect has been rising up draft boards since Draft SZN kicked off (About 15 minutes after the Super Bowl.) It’s strange because with the lack of production from Oweh in 2020 (Zero Sacks) but he is a FREAK athlete for the position. He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and posted a 39.5-inch Vertical Jump as well as an 11ft 2 Broad Jump. These measurables added to his long-limbed 6’5, 257lb frame make him a height-weight-speed anomaly.

A lot of what we’re seeing at the moment from guys in the know is that Oweh is going to coveted by new-age front office teams who consider things like RAS and SPARQ scores. I think his range starts from 21 with almost every side from the Colts down being in play for this guy. My tip? Keep an eye on Cleveland to take Oweh with the 26th overall pick. As for Rousseau? A staple in the top 10 of every “Far too early 2021 Mock Draft” appears to have lost all his draft buzz. Most ‘experts’ have him falling into the 2nd round, with the ones taking him in the first round having him taken off the board during the last three picks.

NFL teams know that disruption is more important than production for pass rushers at the college level and whilst the 2019 producer freefalls out of the first round, the 2020 disruptor (who also happens to be an athletic freak) rises into the middle of the first round.

Conclusion – Jayson Oweh to be drafted before Gregory Rousseau @ 13/8 with Skybet. Jayson Oweh to be drafted in the first round @ 6/5 with SkyBet.

DAY 2 & 3

Contrary to popular belief, the NFL Draft isn’t done with after Thursday night! Oh no, there are two more days and SIX more rounds worth of action for us to find some value in. Here are my favourite prop bets outside of the first round:

  • New Orleans Saints to draft Kyle Trask @ 7/2 with SkyBet
  • Seattle Seahawks to trade down from pick 56 @ 11/8 with SkyBet
  • Kellen Mond to be drafted in the 2nd round @ 2/1 with SkyBet

We’re 1500 words in and there’s still plenty of value left here, I’m not going to bore you any further with reasonings, instead, I’m going to list my favourite bet’s down in 2 points, 1 point, half point and Longshot tiers for the NFL Draft. If you have any questions regarding a selection that hasn’t got a write up alongside it, please don’t hesitate to ask, head over to @bettingadvice01 or for real-time answers to your draft queries and questions find me @BillyMustafa1 on Twitter.

2 Point Bets:

  • Mac Jones to be taken 3rd overall – 1/2 with SportNation.
  • 4 or more Cornerbacks & 1 or more Running Backs taken in Round 1 – 8/11 with SkyBet.

1 Point Bets:

  • 6 or more Alabama players to be taken in the first round – 8/15 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Kellen Mond to be taken before Kyle Trask – 8/11 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Jayson Oweh to be drafted before Gregory Rousseau – 13/8 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Under 1.5 University of Miami, players to be taken in Round 1 – 6/5 with BoyleSports
  • The first 3 picks to be QBs, Kyle Pitts to the Falcons & Ja’Marr Chase to Bengals – 11/4 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • No Safeties taken in round 1 – 7/4 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Baltimore Ravens & Philadelphia Eagles to both select a WR in round 1 – 11/4 with SkyBet (RequestABet)

Half Point Bets:

  • Elijah Moore, Christian Barmore & Jamin Davis all to be drafted in the 1st round – 11/8 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Pat Freiermuth to be drafted in round 1 – 3/1 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Seattle Seahawks to trade down from 56 – 11/8 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • New Orleans Saints to select Kyle Trask – 7/2 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Asante Samuel Jr to be drafted in the 1st round – 1/1 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Travis Etienne to be the first RB drafted – 6/4 with SkyBet (RequestABet)
  • Trey Lance to be drafted third overall – 7/2 with Betfair
  • Pittsburgh Steelers to draft Najee Harris – 7/4 with SkyBet
  • Najee Harris, Micah Parsons, Patrick Surtain II & Kwity Paye to be the first players selected at their positions (RB, LB, CB, DL) – 15/2 with SkyBet

Longshot:

  • Washington to draft Trey Lance – 7/1 with SkyBet.

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