The fourth and final divisional battle of the 6pm slate sees the unbeaten World Champion Chiefs welcome the .500 Raiders to Arrowhead.
The Chiefs initially made hard work of dispatching a weakened Patriots side on Monday Night but eventually found their groove and got a double digit point win and what was looking like a slow day for Mahomes finally turned into a 236 yard 2 TD stat line further proving that even on an off day he’s better than most on their best. Mahomes found 5 of his pass catchers for 3+ receptions in that game which is not only a nightmare for Defensive Co-Ordinators but also for bettors as you wont find a market under the 3.5 total reception number for one of his receivers. In the run game Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t had a game with over 65 yards rushing since week 1 but this Raider Run D has struggled most of the year (although was good last week vs Buffalo) so that could change in this one. The defense is one of the best in the NFL against the pass allowing an average of 195 yards per game through 4 weeks which ranks 3rd but stopping the run has been more of an issue as they allow 5.3 yards per carry and 161 yards per game to opponents on the ground which ranks near the bottom of the NFL so I’m sure Raider Josh Jacobs will be looking at this game as the perfect chance to get his season back on track after failing to capitalise on a huge performance in week 1.
Talking about the Raider offense and Derek Carr is quietly having a good season, yet to throw an INT, he’s thrown 8 TD’s and is completing passes at a 73.5% rate for over 270 yards a game and although not a game winner he’s proving to be one of the better game managing QB’s in the league. The defense is the problem for this Raider side, the Pass D was torched by Josh Allen last week and although the Run D played well vs Buffalo they’ve also struggled on the year allowing 5 yards per carry and over 138 yards per game.
Mahomes is 4-0 against the Raiders in his career and in the two home games the Chiefs have won by 31 and 32 points respectively and in only one of the four games have the Chiefs not won by double digits so give me that –11.5 point spread and give me the Chiefs.
PREDICTION: CHIEFS 34 – 20 RAIDERS
BEST BET: CHIEFS -11.5 POINTS @ 10/11 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.