Barnburner of a TNF game for once as we have the 5-3 Colts traveling to Tennessee to take on the 6-2 Titans in a battle atop the AFC South.
Indy are coming off of a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in a game where their Defense played extremely well keeping Lamar Jackson scoreless through the air and keeping him to only 170 yards and also played really tough against the run keeping this dominant Raven run game to only 110 yards on the ground which bodes well with Derrick Henry coming to town but it won’t matter how well they play Henry in the run game if Philip Rivers and the Offense perform the way they did on Sunday. Rivers was kept to under 230 yards, scoreless and threw an interception as the Colts could only rack up 10 points so after two very strong outings from Rivers are we now looking once again at the Colts Offense we witnessed through the first 5 weeks of the season? One of the biggest make or brake’s for the Colts could be the inclusion of TY Hilton if fit, the Colts have struggled with the health of their pass catchers all season so the return of their unquestioned #1 would be a massive boost if he is in fact able to go here, his 13-2 career record against the Titans would also be a good omen for Indy fans.
The Tennessee Titans halted a two game skid on Sunday with a win over the Bears and will be looking to take a real strangle hold on the AFC South with a win here and will be hoping, as usual, that running Derrick Henry will pick them up their 7th win of the season but this isn’t an easy matchup for the King as Indy boast one of the best run stuffing units in all of Football but having to face Derrick Henry running the ball into you anywhere from 18 to 26 times coming off a short week isn’t what most Defensive players want to see so although Henry’s carries have dipped slightly from the first three games of the season I wouldn’t be surprised to see this as one of his higher workloads in recent weeks and if that’s the case I’d expect Ryan Tannehill to become more of a game manager than game winner and limit the amount of pass attempts he has in this one.
From a betting perspective there are a few lines which caught my eye, Rivers under 265 passing yards (a number he’s only thrown over twice this season) and Ryan Tannehill under 31.5 passing attempts (a number he’s only achieved greater than three times this season) both at 5/6 were interesting but game script could be an issue, If either side get behind by more than a score we could see both QB’s surpass that number. Instead I went with two which should go together, the first being Derrick Henry to have over 20.5 rushing attempts, as we mentioned above we think the smart game plan will be to run Henry as often as possible against any Defensive unit coming off a short week and Henry has ran the ball 21 or more times in 5 of 8 games this season and because of how often we expect Henry to run the ball we really like Darius Leonard to have over 8.5 tackles and assists, he’s achieved that number in 4 of 6 games this season and remarkably has only gone under that total in 7 of 34 career games and in 3 of those games he had an 81% or lower defensive snap involvement (one game under 50% after sustaining an injury) Tackles is always a difficult market as so many variables are in play but with numbers like those we’ll take our chances here.
PREDICTION: TITANS 24 – 21 COLTS
BEST BET: Darius Leonard over 8.5 Tackles & Assists – 11/10 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.
NEXT BEST: Derrick Henry over 20.5 Rushing Attempts – 5/6 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.