TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The annual ‘Derrick Henry runs through the defense’ game as the 8-4 division leading Titans travel to Florida to take on the 1 win Jaguars.

The Jags took the playoff chasing Vikings into OT on Sunday before falling to a FG after a Mike Glennon INT. Jacksonville played the Vikings biggest threat well, Dalvin Cook did have 120 yards on the ground but was made to work for them and averaged under 4 yards a carry and the defense will have to bring a similar performance here as they’re up against the NFL’s leading rusher and resident Jacksonville Jaguar killer, Derrick Henry who is coming off of one of his quieter games this season but worryingly for the Jags is the fact Henry hasn’t gone back to back games with under 100 yards rushing all season and only mustered 60 against the Browns last Sunday.

The Titans squared off against the Browns last Sunday in a game between two AFC playoff contenders and were beaten before HT, heading into the changing rooms down 38-7 and whilst they outscored the Browns 28-3 in the second half to make the final score respectable the damage had already been done. The Titans offense will always run through Derrick Henry but needing to throw the ball in the second half, Ryan Tannehill proved he’s more than a game manager throwing for 389 yards and 3 TD’s as the Titans pushed hard to make a comeback. Tannehill’s favourite target against the Browns was Corey Davis, the former top 5 draft pick caught 11 of 12 targets for over 180 yards and a TD, and both will be hoping for a similar day against a poor Jaguars pass defense who gave up over 300 yards and 3 TD passes to Kirk Cousins last week.

One of these sides is in a race for the division whilst the other is in the race for the #1 overall draft pick and when one side needs to win and the other would prefer to lose I’m going to take the favourite every single time. As for my best bet there’s some interesting markets when you take a look at the Jaguars defense. Firstly, Sidney Jones has not played due to injury the last three weeks and is still listed as questionable heading into this game but that hasn’t stopped Vegas setting his U/O Tackles & Assists line at 4.5, which is a number he’s only bested twice in his eight games so far this season. Secondly, Andrew Wingard, the Safety who plays more Special Teams snaps than defensive ones has an U/O T&A’s line set at 5.5 which is a number he’s only gone over twice in his nine games this season and has gone under that number in his last five games including two blanks in that time frame and only played 3% of defensive snaps in the Jags last game. Finally we have a Jags defender who we like to go over his T&A total and that’s Joe Schobert who’s T&A U/O is 8.5 which is a number he’s gone over six times this season and registered ten in the first meeting between the two sides, with Derrick Henry expected to once again see a heavy workload it’ll be the job of tackling machine, Schobert to try and slow him down.

PREDICTION: TITANS 30 – 24 JAGUARS

BEST BET: Sidney Jones UNDER 4.5 Tackles & Assists – 8/11 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.

NEXT BEST: Andrew Wingard UNDER 5.5 Tackles & Assists – 4/6 with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.

WE ALSO LIKE: Joe Schobert OVER 8.5 Tackles & Assists – EVENS with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.   

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