Two AFC sides who’re underperforming early on the season after being tipped to make a run at claiming their respective divisions this year, only to both suffer big losses to the 2020 division winners.

The Colts, who were supposed to be real AFC contenders after adding Carson Wentz (no, I’m not sure how people came to that conclusion either) this offseason, find themselves in an 0-3 hole and are now in must-win territory at home to the Dolphins. Wentz has performed better than he did with the Eagles in 2020 but is still far from the QB we thought he’d become after that 2017 season. Quenton Nelson, the stud Guard for Indy will miss this matchup, and it’ll be interesting to see how Wentz manages without his best lineman. On the defense it’s been a poor showing for the Colts with the secondary grading 31st in the NFL in defensive coverage against WRs according to PFF, which doesn’t bode well as they go against a pass-happy Dolphins offense. 

Miami responded to being shut out by the Bills in Week 2 by taking the Raiders to overtime before eventually falling short in Vegas. Jacoby Brissett has performed admirably in Tua’s absence and will have a chance to get his first win as a starting QB for the Dolphins against an underwhelming Colts secondary. In both of Brissett’s games this year he’s attempted 40 or more pass attempts and completed no fewer than 24 in a single game and whilst obviously 40+ passing attempts every game is unrealistic, it does show us that even with a backup QB the Dolphins want to be a passing football team so Brissett’s U/O 29.5 passing attempts and U/O 18.5 pass completions don’t really make sense to me, especially against a poor Colts secondary. I also like Brissett to hit the over on his U/O 208.5 passing yards number, he cleared that number last week and with field stretchers like Waddle & Fuller at his disposal, I expect him to go over again here. 

Spread: Dolphins -2.5

Total Match Points line: U/O 42.0

Game Prediction: Miami 17-13 Colts

Best Bet: Jacoby Brissett over 208.5 passing yards, over 29.5 pass attempts & over 18.5 pass completions @ 3/1 with Bet365 Bet Builder. [0.5] 

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