For the second year in a row, we have a team playing with home-field advantage in the Super Bowl as the Los Angeles Rams host the Cincinnati Bengals for all the marbles. The Rams acquisitions of Matthew Stafford, Von Miller & OBJ, point to a team being all-in on a Super Bowl run, whilst the Bengals offensive core of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins shows a team built through the draft and hitting on their (early) picks. Two very different team-building philosophies have led these two franchises to the big one, with a chance to cement their names in the history books. Will the Rams follow in the Buccaneers footsteps and win a home Super Bowl, or will Burrow and the Bengals complete their dream season and hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history? 

3 Props, 1 Kupp

Our first prop bet involves a player who’s been a popular pick with us here at FBA this season, and that’s Cooper Kupp. The diminutive pass-catcher has had a stellar season, and his connection with Rams first-year QB Matthew Stafford led to Kupp being named the NFL’s OPOY on Friday. Kupp has had 13 games this year with 105 or more receiving yards, and I like his chances of making that 14 against Cincinnati. The Bengals give up a completion rate of around 70% to the Slot. This suits Kupp, who lines up there 73% of the time for L.A. Kupp has also had Nine or more receptions in 11 games this season, I expect him to have double-digit receptions on Sunday. Kupp’s also been a stud in the TD department this season with twenty receiving TDs (including post-season) this includes at least one TD in each of his last five games and in eight of his last nine. 

BET 1: Cooper Kupp to score a TD, over 8.5 receptions & 104.5 receiving yards @ 11/4 with Bet365 Bet Builder. [1]

Joey Brrrrrr

There’s been a lot of chatter about Joe Burrow since the Bengals beat the Chiefs in OT to book their place in the Super Bowl. Whilst I struggle to elevate him into the Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers & Josh Allen tier of Quarterbacks, I do believe he’s one of the brightest young stars and QBs in the league. The Bengals have a pass-first offense that allows Burrow to get the ball to his trio of talented receivers. Because of this, Burrow has been able to throw multiple TD passes in thirteen games this season, including in five of his last seven outings. Whilst this pass-first style of offense is a bonus to Burrow’s touchdown passes market, it also creates more opportunities for him to turn the ball over by throwing an Interception. Burrow threw 14 INTs in the regular season and has thrown two in three games during the Playoffs (one each in the Divisional & Championship games.) This plays well into the hands of an opportunistic Rams defense, one that has registered an Interception in every game since Week 10 (including the Playoffs) 

BET 2: Joe Burrow to throw over 1.5 TDs & 0.5 INTs @ 17/10 with Bet365 Bet Builder. [0.5] 

Defensive Super Bowl MVP AGAIN?

The MVP of the Super Bowl rarely goes to anyone who isn’t the QB of the winning team, but occasionally the decision-makers get exotic and look elsewhere for the award. The last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP was a certain Von Miller, who led the Denver Broncos to a win over the Carolina Panthers at Super Bowl 50. That same Von Miller will be rushing off the edge for the L.A. Rams on Sunday, and things could be lining up for him to become the first defensive player to win multiple Super Bowl MVP awards. Miller has seven sacks in as many games leading into and including the post-season, and this strong recent form should scare a Bengals O-Line that has struggled to protect Joe Burrow all year. Burrow is the most sacked QB in the NFL, and up against a Rams defensive front that boasts Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, as well as Miller, it could be a long and painful game for the former number 1 overall pick. I expect the Bengals to focus a lot of their attention on stopping Aaron Donald from destroying the interior of their offensive line, and this could well leave a lot of 1-on-1 opportunities for Von Miller, opportunities he should exploit. Whilst the QB’s on both sides are the logical choice here, 40/1 feels like value for a dominant player with a favourable matchup. 

BET 3: Von Miller to be Super Bowl MVP @ 40/1 with Bet365. [0.25]

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