I’m low key excited for this one! Can Joe Burrow get his first win as a pro or will Minshew refind his week 1 swagger and move the Jags to .500 on the season?
The Bengals were unlucky to not get their first win of the year in week 3 but instead ended up with a tie against the disappointing Eagles but a lot of positives to take from that game as Joe Burrow looked every inch the #1 overall pick posting a 312 yards, 2 TD and 105.5 QBR game and he managed this with a porous Offensive-Line who allowed 8 sacks against the Eagles. Tyler Boyd is quickly becoming the #1 receiver in that offense and is a stud on the outside but their inability to get a talent like Joe Mixon going in the run game seems like a wasted opportunity. On defense, they’ve been respectable against the pass holding all three QB’s they’ve faced so far this season to no more than 225 yards through the air and have 3 INT’s on the year but when it comes to stopping the run they have been less than impressive ranking 31st through 3 weeks.
The Jags turned some heads with their week 1 win over the fancied Colts but have come back down to earth the last two weeks with back to back losses to the Titans and Dolphins, the latter was a bit of a blowout and really showed the limitations of the Jaguars on both sides of the ball. The Defense has only managed 1 Sack a game through 3 weeks and will need to improve on that if they’re going to slow down Burrow. The Jags best chance of getting the win in this one I think comes via James Robinson and the ground game, the Bengals have struggled against RB’s this year and Robinson has been getting better and better week after week. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t leave this one with at least another score to add to the three he already has on the season.
I really think this comes down to offensive strength vs defensive weakness for both sides and who can take the most advantage. I expect the Jags to look to establish the run game and keep Burrow off the field for as long as possible to help their porous secondary and when the Bengals are on offense I expect them to air it out and target said secondary. I’m going to go with the Bengals, they’ve played every game close and are unlucky to still be winless and I think home advantage helps them get their first win on the year.
PREDICTION: BENGALS 24 – 21 JAGUARS
BEST BET: James Robinson over 60.5 Rushing Yards @ 5/6 with SkyBet. 2 point bet.
NEXT BEST: Gardner Minshew under 270.5 passing yards @ 5/6 with SkyBet. 1 point bet.
OUTSIDER OF THE WEEK: James Robinson to score a Hat-trick @ 25/1 with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.