MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Big game in the AFC East as the Buffalo Bills who’re looking to go a perfect 6-0 in the division welcome the 10-5 playoff chasing Dolphins.

As well as aiming to sweep the division, the Bills are also able to secure the #2 seed in the AFC with a win, and whilst it may not have the same benefits as it has previously (this is the first season the #2 seed won’t have a bye) the Bills will know that they can secure home field advantage until at least the AFC Championship Game (If they make it that far) with a win. Josh Allen once again showed his MVP credentials against the Patriots on MNF with his fourth four TD game of the season as Buffalo destroyed their long time tormentors 38-9, with Stefon Diggs posting his seventh 100+ yard receiving game of the season, and third in a row as well as having his first multiple TD game of the season with a hat-trick against the Patriots. The Allen to Diggs partnership has been in force all season, and the week two game between these two sides was no exception as Allen was faultless in throwing for 415 yards, 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s whilst Diggs caught 8 passes for 153 yards and a TD, a similar performance from those two here would almost guarantee an MVP for Allen and probably a OPOY award for Diggs. The Bills defense was a problem earlier in the season but one that seems to have been fixed, and the unit we see now closer resembles the top three defense the Bills had last year than the early season mess, they’ve kept each of their last five opponents to 24 points or less, and I like their chances of making that six against an underwhelming Miami offense who will be missing their relief pitcher at QB…

Ryan Fitzpatrick came off the bench to keep the Miami Dolphins playoff hopes alive as he threw for nearly twice the amount of yards on nine less attempts and eight less completions as he threw a TD pass and set up the game winning FG with a fantastic completed pass whilst his head was turned the other way due to an illegal facemask grab from a Raiders defender, but Brian Flores’ trick of bringing in Fitzpatrick whenever things get too much for the rookie Tua will have to change this week as Ryan Fitzpatrick will miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19, so we’ll be seeing a full 60 minutes of Tua. The rookie has blown hot and cold as a starter for Miami with half of his eight starts ending in under 150 passing yard games as well as being benched in a quarter of his starts. Miami don’t rely on their offense to win games, they rely on them not to lose games as their defense is one of the leagues best at scoring points and taking the ball away to give their offense good field position, Cornerback Xavien Howard leads the NFL in interceptions with nine and will be looking to make that double figures before the regular season ends.

Really interesting game with so many interesting sub-plots; Will the Bills decide that a weeks rest is more beneficial than the #2 seed and rest their starters? Can Tua pull out a performance in a must win game?

I’m taking the Bills, I think they’re the better team and if they don’t rest their starters I like them to win this game. As for my best bet, we were looking at Miami’s big Tight End, Mike Gesicki to have himself a day, he hurt the Bills in their first meeting with 130 yards and a TD on 8 receptions but it’s proving impossible to find a market on him so instead we go to something of a long shot, and John Brown, the Bills Wide Receiver hasn’t played since week 10 after suffering an injury but will suit up for this game, and I expect him to be busy in his first game back as Bils slot receiver, Cole Beasley will miss the game which will make Brown the #2 receiver. Brown has four TD grabs in three games for the Bills against Miami and at 4/1 odds to score here, we like the value.

PREDICTION: BILLS 28 – 24 DOLPHINS      

BEST BET: John Brown ANYTIME TD – 4/1 with SkyBet. 0.5 point bet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: