JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Week 4 in the NFL kicks off with a TNF meeting between the last two #1 overall picks in the NFL Draft as Trevor Lawrence takes his Jaguars to the Jungle in search of their first win. Waiting for them will be Joe Burrow and the Bengals who are fresh off a divisional win last week and should be in a confident mood as they work to move to 3-1 on the year. 

The Bengals made a statement in Week 3 as they beat a depleted Steelers team in Pittsburgh for the first time since 2015. Joe Burrow bounced back from a poor 3 Interception game in Week 2 loss to throw for 3TDs in a win last week and will be relishing the chance to go against a Jags secondary that’s averaging 300+ passing yards allowed per game to opposition QBs so far in 2021. Ja’Marr Chase was a 17/10 anytime TD winner for us last week and, he doubled down with a brace to take his record to 4TDs in 3 NFL career games. His price has come in to 11/10 to find paydirt here, but he has every opportunity to add to his impressive return against a poor secondary unit and is best priced 7/1 to repeat his two TD effort this week. CJ Uzomah has been used sparingly this season after coming back from injury, through 3 games he’s yet to receive more than 2 targets in a single game and was even held catch-less on a single target last week. His U/O 2.5 receptions looks a reception too high for me, making the under a play if you can bear rooting for an under whilst watching the game! 

The Jags are 0-3 and have lost 18 straight games. Urban Meyer & Trevor Lawrence were meant to usher in an era of success but so far both look a little out of their depth. Meyer has concerned almost everyone with his “Alabama” comparisons, whilst Trevor Lawrence has thrown more picks in three NFL games than he did during the entirety of his last year with Clemson. The increased usage of James Robinson in the passing game should help Lawrence with a check-down option so he doesn’t always feel the need to throw a questionable pass down the field. Lawrence’s inconsistency in the passing game makes finding value on the Jags offense a difficult process. Instead, we look to the defense to provide us with some potential plays. DB’s Andrew Wingard and Shaquil Griffin have been busy so far this season with both players making numerous combines tackles & assists. Wingard has made 6 or more T&As in each of the three games he’s played this season, he also produced a season-high 10 T&As in the matchup between these two sides in 2020’s Week 4 matchup. His teammate Shaquil Griffin has done his fair share of work through three games too, the versatile DB has produced 4+ T&As in his three games in 2021 and that reflects what we witnessed from him during his time in Seattle as Griffin made 4 or more T&As in 38 of 57 games as a Seahawk, including in 20 of 26 games in his last two seasons in the Pacific North-West. With Wingard’s line set at U/O 5.5 and Griffin’s at U/O 3.5, we like the over on both against a balanced Bengals offense. 

Spread Jaguars -7.5

Total Match Points line: U/O 46.0

Game Prediction: Bengals 21-20 Jaguars

Best Bet: C.J. Uzomah under 2.5 receptions, Andrew Wingard over 5.5 Tackles & Assists and Shaquil Griffin over 3.5 Tackles & Assists @ 9/2 with Bet365 Bet Builder.

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