HOUSTON TEXANS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Probably the biggest mismatch of the week as the 1-2 Texans travel to Western New York to take on the impressive 2-1 Buffalo Bills. 

The Houston Texans impressive performance in the opening game seems a long time ago now, as they’ve not only lost their last two games but also their starting QB in Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills played at a respectable level against the Panthers on TNF but, I’m not convinced he’s a passer ready to lead an NFL team just yet. Brandin Cooks is pretty much the entirety of the passing offense and you have to wonder how the Texans will move the ball if the Bills defense is successful in taking him out of the game. On defense Houston will be without arguably their two best front-7 players as Zach Cunningham and Ross Blacklock have been placed on the COVID-19 list, making an already difficult task an almost impossible one. 

Let’s go Buffalo is the noise coming from the BillsMafia as Josh Allen and the offense got going in a route of the Washington Football Team in Week 3. Allen threw for over 350 yards and accounted for 5TDs on the day as he bounced back from back to back lacklustre performances to start the season. Dawson Knox has been mightly impressive through three weeks, catching 100% of his targets in the opener and has since posted back to back games with a TD and now faces a Texans defense who has struggled to deal with the position as a whole so far this season. In Week 3 we explained a little how the Texans are giving up TDs to backup & inline TEs which led to us hitting on a 22/1 shot winner. Not quite those dizzy heights this week although not far off as we have a 4-tier TE betting preview. At even money, we have Dawson Knox over 2.5 receptions. He’s had 4 receptions in 2 of 3 games so far this season and with his seemingly improved hands, I think we can expect Knox to be regularly involved in this Bills passing game. At 3/1 we have a Knox anytime TD, as mentioned above Knox has two scores in his last two games and 4 in his last 6 going back to the Bills post-season adventure. Now for the longshots, backup TEs Tommy Sweeney & Reggie Gilliam are best priced 11/1 & 18/1 respectively to score anytime. Both players are used sparingly by the Bills, but in a game that they’re favoured to win by three scores we could see the backups in sooner rather than later and with the Texans showing an inability to cover TEs in the endzone I think the anytime TD is worth taking on all three. 

Spread: Bills -16.5

Total Match Points line: U/O 47.0

Game Prediction: Bills 34-3 Texans

Best Bet: Dawson Knox over 2.5 receptions @ EVENS with SkyBet. [0.5]

TE Jeopardy;

Dawson Knox anytime TD @ 3/1 [0.25]

Tommy Sweeny anytime TD @ 11/1 [0.25]

Reggie Gilliam anytime TD @ 18/1 [0.25] 

All with SkyBet. 

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