BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Game of the week on SNF as we get a repeat of the 2020 AFC Championship game. Can the 3-1 Bills avenge their loss in that game with a win here, or will the 2-2 Chiefs get themselves above .500 as they look to make up ground in their division and the AFC? 

Kansas has obviously not had the start to the season that they wanted or expected as they sit at 2-2 and bottom of the AFC West, but this is still a team that can score almost at will. Mahomes, Hill & Kelce are borderline unstoppable as a trio, and expectations have to managed when facing them as you’re not going to shut them out of the game completely. All 3 dominated as the Chiefs beat the Bills in the AFC Championship game last year as Buffalo had no answer for any of them. The defensive side of the ball is the complete opposite for Kansas City though, they’ve allowed 29+ points in all four games they’ve played this season and now face Josh Allen and a Buffalo Bills offense that has outscored their opponents 118-21 through the last three weeks. 

Buffalo are arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now (Arizona might disagree) they’ve posted shutouts in two of their last three games and became only the third team in NFL history to post two shutouts through the first four weeks of the season, the other two? 1991 Washington Redskins and the 2001 Baltimore Ravens.. both of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl those seasons. The Bills defense has been the real story this year though, in their performance against the Texans last week they broke an NFL record for DVOA that was set by the 1985 Chicago Bears, long regarded as the absolute pinnacle for defense in the NFL. The Bills made it a priority to build a fiercer defensive line after struggling to rush the passer in big games last year, in this matchup, we’ll see if that plan came to fruition this offseason. As for my best bet, I like Dawson Knox to get himself involved often. His U/O receptions line for the game is set at 3.5, that’s a total he’s gone over in 3 of 4 games this season and the AFC Championship game against Kansas City. I also like Zack Moss to go over his 8.5 rushing attempts line, the Bills don’t run the ball much, but Moss has double-digit carries in back to back games and after Devin Singletary fumbled yet again last week, I’m expecting Moss to be the starter going forward. 

Look, full discretion here, I’m a huge Bills fan, but I have to write these articles from a neutral perspective. I said earlier in the week that this game isn’t about talent, Buffalo have the horses to run with anyone and there’s absolutely no doubt this Bills defense is better than KC’s. But this game, this opponent, it isn’t a physical hurdle for the Buffalo Bills, it’s a mental one. KC beat Buffalo twice last year including a beat down in the Championship Game and until Josh Allen can go throw for throw with Patrick Mahomes in a big game, the narrative is always going to be that Bills are less than. Earlier in the week I also said I’ll need to see the Bills play at the same level as the Chiefs before I believe it, I’ll need to see them beat the Chiefs before I believe it’s possible. So is that still the case now Sunday’s here…?

Not a chance. Buffalo are the better team, whilst the Chiefs have the better offense, it’s a close call, we’re talking about two top 5 unit here, but on defense? It’s not even close! Buffalo might be the best defense in the NFL whilst the Chiefs arguably have the worst. I think this Bills side has matured and can take enough of the emotion out of the game to play loose and close to the mistake-free ball they’ll need to play to beat KC. The Chiefs are always going to score points as long as Mahomes is the guy slinging it, but this is where Josh proves to the doubters that he’s right up there with Mahomes as one of the top QBs in football. So, Let’s GO BUFFALO! 

Spread: Bills +3

Total Match Points line: U/O 56.5

Game Prediction: Bills 45-44 Chiefs

Best Bet: Dawson Knox over 3.5 receptions & Zack Moss over 8.5 rushing attempts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Bet Builder. [0.5] 

Go Bills 

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